Bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive model: new alternatives with applications to tourism forecasting

This paper proposes the use of the bias‐corrected bootstrap for interval forecasting of an autoregressive time series with an arbitrary number of deterministic components. We use the bias‐corrected bootstrap based on two alternative bias‐correction methods: the bootstrap and an analytic formula based on asymptotic expansion. We also propose a new stationarity‐correction method, based on stable spectral factorization, as an alternative to Kilian's method exclusively used in past studies. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to compare small‐sample properties of prediction intervals. The results show that the bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals proposed in this paper exhibit desirable small‐sample properties. It is also found that the bootstrap bias‐corrected prediction intervals based on stable spectral factorization are tighter and more stable than those based on Kilian's stationarity‐correction. The proposed methods are applied to interval forecasting for the number of tourist arrivals in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

喷雾干燥塔PLC控制系统在水泥减水剂生产中的应用

在水泥减水剂生产中,由于以热风炉和干燥塔为主体的对象时滞较大,干扰波动频繁,使得产品质量难以达到预期的效果。针对此问题,采用PID算法,利用PLC的逻辑控制和运算功能,对生产过程进行了自动化技术改造,增强了抗干扰能力,明显提高了产品质量。     

Comprehensive optimal control on seismic response of a single-tower self-anchored suspension bridge

Earthquake may cause severe damage to all kinds of bridge such as the falling down of the girder; therefore,effective measures should be employed to control the seismic displacement. In this paper,the method of comprehensive optimal control,com-bined with analytic hierarchy process,is employed to investigate the seismic response control of the Nanjing Jiangxinzhou Bridge,which is a single-tower self-anchored suspension bridge (SSSB). Also,3-dimensional nonlinear seismic response analyses are con-ducted. Three types of practical connection measures for seismic response control of SSSB are investigated,and the optimal pa-rameters of the connection devices are achieved by this method. Results show that both the elastic connection devices and the damp-ers with rational parameters can reduce the seismic displacement of the bridge effectively,but the elastic connection devices will in-crease the seismic force of the tower. When all factors are consid-ered,the optimal measure is by using the elastic connection devices and the dampers together. These results can provide references for seismic response control of SSSBs.     

Robust Sensor Bias Estimation for Ill-Conditioned Scenarios

Sensor bias estimation is an inherent problem in multi-sensor data fusion systems. Classical methods such as the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method can have numerical problems with ill-conditioned sets which are common in practical applications. This paper describes an azimuth-GLS method that provides a solution to the ill-conditioning problem while maintaining reasonable accuracy compared with the classical GLS method. The mean square error is given for both methods as a criterion to determine when to use this azimuth-GLS method. Furthermore, the separation boundary between the azimuth-GLS favorable region and that of the GLS method is explicitly plotted. Extensive simulations show that the azimuth-GLS approach is preferable in most scenarios.     

基于MATLAB的输电线路工频参数计算

基于卡松数学模型修正算法的理论研究和计算推导,并结合500 kV同塔多路输电线路实例,通过设计软件计算输电线路的参数与现场实测值进行比较,验证了该设计方案的可行性和实用性.     

电信空调冷却塔供冷系统节能应用

根据电信机楼的空调负荷特点，在冬季和部分过渡季节，选择使用冷却塔加板式换热器的间接式免费供冷空调系统为电信机楼提供冷量。介绍了冬季机房空调送风温度和冷却塔供冷温度的确定，分析了冷却塔供冷温度对冷却塔运行消耗的影响。通过预测计算确定冷却塔免费制冷的的运行时间及节能效果。并引入了冷负荷供需指数的概念，经过现场测试计算得出江苏电信第二枢纽工程中影响该指数的三个因素，最后总结了江苏电信免费制冷技术的节能情况和应用潜力。     

浅谈图书馆读者阅读活动中的性别差异

通过对阅读内容偏好和阅读习惯差异的观察与调查,分析了性别差异对图书馆读者借阅活动的影响,从读者阅读活动中的性别差异出发,对改善图书馆的工作提出了一些建设性意见。     

迭代法求算精馏塔的理论塔板数

在解析法和图解法求算精馏塔理论塔板数的基础上,提出了迭代法求算理论塔板数.本方法概念清晰,过程简练,结果准确,避免了解析法计算过程繁杂、手算工作量大和图解法在塔板数较多时误差过大的缺点,若利用计算机求算,其算法十分简便.     

2种制造/安装偏差对高速车辆方向稳定性的影响

为改善高速车辆的方向稳定性,研究了左右轴距不等及车身纵轴线与前后车轴中点连线不重合的2种制造/安装偏差,及其导致车辆高速行驶时出现跑偏现象的机理及相关影响.建立了这2种制造/安装偏差导致高速车辆发生跑偏运动的动力学模型,推导出其状态方程,并通过数值仿真定量解析了这2种制造/安装偏差对车辆高速方向稳定性的影响.研究结果表...     

冷却塔供冷节能技术应用研究

介绍了冷却塔用于空调供冷系统的原理及形式,选取我国部分典型城市为研究对象,结合其气象参数,利用空气的焓湿图查取了各个城市逐月的湿球温度,分析了冷却塔供冷技术在这些地区的适用性及运行时间.结果表明,冷却塔供冷技术用于空调系统对我国大部分地区是适用的,应该予以大力推广.